Comments for Sentient Money

Comment on Oil Speculation…Out of Control? by Registered Investment Advisor

Registered Investment Advisor — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:55:29 +0000

Make sense. Though I do think there is a bubble in the oil price and speculators are contributing to it. Research has shown that speculators as a group don’t make money. In fact, 90% lost their shirt. Only 1% make a lot of money.

I also see a lot of benefits of higher oil price. It finally gets us American to loss some of our wasteful habits.

Comment on Oil Speculation…Out of Control? by Christine Gilbert

Christine Gilbert — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:42:14 +0000

The author makes a good point.. you can’t really “game” the market… it will correct itself at some point.

Comment on Market Update by Claire

Claire — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:12:01 +0000

Hi Chad, just wanted to say thanks for the comment - it was my 1st ever!! Your site looks really interesting. Look forwards to reading more in the future.

Comment on NO BONDS! by Trug

Trug — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 11:08:56 +0000

I used to think it was speculation also, until I looked at the EIA (www.eia.doe.gov) stats on world oil production. Reconciling that with, say, 8% growth in EM - there’s an increasing use of energy to achieve that growth.

Comment on NO BONDS! by Chad

Chad — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 10:37:58 +0000

@Trug - The only problem is that oil may be overvalued. I have seen some very good rationale from people outside of government/special interest groups that suggests a significant portion of this is speculation. I’m not saying I’m completely in the speculation camp, but the argument is compeling enough for me to avoid oil on either side.

Comment on NO BONDS! by Trug

Trug — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:45:09 +0000

IMO the only sectors worth holding are Energy and Materials. That way if the stock market recovers, you’ll capture that gain, however if oil succeeds in beating stocks into submission, you’ll hold up well, maybe even make money since Energy sector is at 11 P/E. On timing your way back in - ask yourself what will happen if oil keeps making new highs. I think new lows will be made.

Comment on How Far Can This Market Drop? by Chad

Chad — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 18:07:28 +0000

@Dale - I completely agree that down markets are great for those not near retirement. I have been slowly buying as it heads down, though I’m still fairly concerned there might be another cliff waiting.

@Shanel - Glad you stopped back. I haven’t done a fundamental analysis of Apple, because it’s not cheap enough, yet, for me to do the work. What you say about Apple is partially true. Their stuff is cheaper than some other options, but it is still an expensive option and is completely discretionary. No one needs an iPod or iPhone. Plus, the digital music player market is close to being mature, so most people that want one have one. This means new purchases are mainly for an upgraded model and most people don’t upgrade when they aren’t financially secure. Long-term I think they will be the Microsoft of mobile computing devices (iPhone), but that will have to wait until this recession begins to ease.

Comment on How Far Can This Market Drop? by Shanel Yang

Shanel Yang — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:39:00 +0000

@Dale — Good point if a little bluntly put. But, as with a lot things that make sense, some people just neglect to do them. I’m sure even you in your youthful zeal have done a few things you’ve regretted in your past. We all fall prey to inertia and ignorance. That’s why blogs like this one are a big help as we try to stay focused on the big picture and avoid panic. I hope I will remember the voice of reason when I finally think about retiring, 20-30 years down the line.

@Chad - Thanks for your soothing voice of reason! Just curious, how low is low enough for you to purchase Apple? Has it gone down at all? I’d imagine that’s one of the stocks that would actually rise in a depressed economy due to people turning to cheaper entertainment at home and on their person as opposed to buying new cars, expensive vacations, etc.

Comment on NO BONDS! by Chad

Chad — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:36:46 +0000

@ Em - I don’t have a post on market timing. The big reason is I pulled most of my money out last fall and I didn’t start this blog until 2 months ago. I’m currently looking for a good entry point. I have put some back in, but I’m not sure if it was a good idea or not. I’m thinking, it wasn’t.

Comment on NO BONDS! by Em

Em — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:26:45 +0000

Chad, your decision to go all cash is intriguing, so I’ve been looking for the relevant post, and I haven’t found it. Did you already write about your market timing decision, or are you saying that you will one day?