Sentient Money

Ok, I got a little sidetracked from my blog, but now I’m back.  Of course, given my long lay off it won’t be surprising if no one notices.  Who could blame anyone?  Anyway, let’s get right into this.
The market has probably completely confused everyone by now.  First, the market has a spectacular crash last winter [...]

It’s been a while since I posted, which doesn’t mean there wasn’t anything interesting going on.  I just got lazy…these things happen.
Anyway, we are heading into the bulk of the earnings reports, which should either solidify the recent run up or start to pound it back into its dank little hole.  I’m voting for the [...]

Is this the ultimate use of Buffett’s “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” rule?
Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, said the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s. [...]

That appears to be what all the markets are hoping for, as there is no other good news.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is considering new stimulus measures, adding to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan as the government tries to revive growth in the world’s third-biggest economy.  -Bloomberg
I must admit I’m more than a [...]

The silver lining amongst all this pain is the exposure of fraudulent money managers.  People like Madoff, Stanford, and the two most recent potential prison inductees, Paul Greenwood and Stephen Walsh are being revealed, as the downturn does not allow them to hide their criminal behavior.
For two decades, Paul Greenwood and Stephen Walsh looked like [...]

No.  Feel free to read the rest, but I have no doubt this analysis is dead on.
This bill will not even come close to stabilizing housing prices.  Oh, it may cause prices to plateau for a month or two, or make declines over the next few months very minor, but this is a band-aid for [...]

I’ve used that quote before, but I’m going to use it again as we, as a country, still refuse to take the pain.  I’m not talking about cutting back on eating out one night a week or not buying a new shirt we saw at the mall.  I’m talking about the hope that springs forth [...]

As the markets continue to inch higher and more pundits are starting to say the worst is over, can we begin to believe this rebound is actually a recovery?
I hate being the bearer of bad news, actually I don’t if I’m right.  Anyway, all the hope being touted by “experts” on CNBC, CNN, Fox, etc. [...]

Today is a big positive, but by no means signals a V-shaped recovery.  Everyone needs to remember that the bond/credit markets are closed today (holiday), and these markets have been the drag on the equity market.  On top of that Europe has increased their government intervention in the financial markets, and there are rumors the [...]

 
With everything that is going on let’s take a look at the most overlooked, but what may be the most important aspect of our economic model.  What is it?  The Fed?  Wall Street?  Inflation?  Nah…it’s psychology.
Right now you are thinking, “This guy has lost it.  Companies are going bankrupt left and right, thousands of jobs [...]